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Thoughts: Handgun Stopping Power

October 8, 2019 by Bob Campbell 4 Comments

In writing, I prefer my information to be valid, the research verifiable, and the experiments repeatable—especially when it come to handgun stopping power. I like to give the reader an opportunity to get a handle on things. Quite often the things that the critic points out harshly are the things the majority of the readers find valuable. I have found that the subject of handgun wound potential or handgun stopping power isn’t a puzzle at all but remains a puzzle to those who make it so. I realize that there is no natural law that gives a man a reward that matches his endeavor, so I hope that the reader finds something of value in this work.

There has been more debate concerning handgun-stopping power in the past 20 years than in the previous 100. A lot of gunplay took place in the old west, but period literature covers the tactics and personalities far more closely than the guns and calibers used. The .44 and .45 caliber revolvers in wide use on the frontier, seemed to work with authority, and no one much questioned the efficacy of their ballistics. There are reports of the effect of the .44 on horses, and the problems with the .36 at long range during the Civil War, but perhaps that is going back too far and reading too much into different technology.

1911 .45 ACP pistol and .45 Long Colt revolver below
The .45 ACP was developed to offer similar wound potential to the .45 Colt, lower. These are old school handguns perhaps, but only a few months old. One is for concealed carry, and the other accompanies the author on the trail.

Since the days when word-of-mouth was the only barometer of handgun effectiveness, we have made many advances in measuring handgun power. The standard was once pine boards to test handgun cartridges, penetration being the only criteria. Penetration is still the most important criteria. When hollow points were tested, ductseal and clay—both unrealistic media—were widely used. Today, we have carefully formulated ballistic gelatin, developed by trauma surgeons to replicate human tissue, as well as some highly significant scientific studies of gunshot effects.

The study of tactics and human behavior is more important than the weapon, caliber, and loading used in combat. Marksmanship can be proven to be the most important component of handgun effectiveness. Wound ballistics is a science, with conclusions drawn from studying bullet tracks in both ballistic gelatin and corpses in the Medical examiner’s morgue.

The detractors of laboratory tests feel these tests cannot duplicate differences in point of impact, clothing, attitude, muscle structure, and intoxication. However, a ballistic scientist does not ask us to believe anything. He simply presents the results of his tests. The results are not only verifiable, they are repeatable (the real test of science).

.357 Magnum revolver above a .38 Super 1911 pistol
The .357 Magnum, above, pretty much eclipsed the excellent .38 Super, below. In appropriate-sized handguns, each is a viable personal defense handgun.

Stopping power “studies,” on the other hand, ask us to believe in someone’s conclusion. Assuming such compilations are valid requires a considerable leap of faith. Reports are often sensationalized, even glamorized. Are such studies grounded in reality? Are they even useful? Can they be supported by scientific methods?

I don’t have all the answers, but I do know this: Cartridges and loads are not as important as basic shooting skills. I don’t believe trick loads significantly alter the ability of a smallbore cartridge to inflict damage. I simply don’t accept many published reports because they are anecdotal and based on hearsay. Even if the shootings actually occurred, which is reasonable to ask, the methodology is flawed. In other cases, there are conclusions made that are so irrelevant to the reality of interpersonal combat that they are not even worth publishing.

A Skeptical Eye

When it comes to the various handgun “studies,” we must consider their validity. These “researchers” are not writing the King James version of stopping power. Yet, the figures expressed are often quoted in the popular press as gospel. A criticism of some of the work might be the inability of others to inspect and review source material. To some, this reduces the validity of the study to zero.

Certainly, such unsubstantiated work does not meet an investigative standard. As a longtime law enforcement officer, I understand both sides of this debate. Confidentiality and respect for families must be considered. Cops who collect shooting histories may not have engaged in much gunplay. They may have arrived just after most gunfights have ended. Cops from Area Six in Chicago, Fort Apache (the Bronx) in New York, or The Wall in California have a good idea of the type of damage different handgun calibers inflict. They are good investigators as well. They realize that three eyewitnesses testifying in good faith may perceive events three different ways.

five-shot .45 revolver, left, and a six-shot .38 revolver, right.
A fast-handling short-barrel revolver is a reasonable choice for personal defense. That’s a five-shot .45, left, and a six-shot .38, right.

Human perceptions differ. The road to a detective’s badge in many agencies is through the traffic division. Working wreck scenes is small-scale investigation—separating the sleuths from the duffers in some cases. Applying normal investigative standards to stopping power studies often reveals bankrupt methodology or standards. These “studies” do not even meet the criteria demanded by some agencies in ascertaining who is at fault in a fender bender.

Most police trainers have long abandoned the attempt to study stopping power and instead have concentrated on tactical movement and the actions of felons in combat. Tactics carry the day. By criticizing issue arms and equipment, we undermine an officer’s confidence in his gear, something he is usually unable to change. Sure, a DAO 9mm loaded with subsonic ammunition is not my first choice but a good man or woman behind the sights can make a difference. Tactics and marksmanship are a better answer than hotter loads in minor calibers.

One writer did the boys and girls in blue no favor when he stated in pat terms that load selection is more important than shot placement. His reasoning was that we can control load selection, but not marksmanship. Evidently, he does not realize that shots that do not find critical areas are relatively ineffective. Any hunter knows better, and hunting lessons do indeed translate to self-defense. A gut-shot man behaves just like a gut-shot deer—both are up and running for quite some time. A man and deer are similar in size and may be about as hard to put down. The man knows he has been shot, the deer does not, and men are more susceptible to shock.

NIghthawk 1911 .45 pistol above, .45 ACP Colt 1911 pistol below
The author prefers the balance of control and power in the .45 automatic. The Nighthawk, top, and Colt, below, are frequent companions.

Most studies, or rather I call them published opinions, eliminate multiple bullet strikes from the data as they ‘confuse the issue.’ This simply makes small caliber bullets look much better than real world experience would indicate. Most handgun fights will be multiple strike incidents. One-shot failures would be rare. After all, if the first shot fails, won’t you fire another? Besides, trained shooters often fire double or triple taps before a subject can fall.

A problem with handgun histories is qualifying hits. I have on hand a report from police sources in which a coroner and a medical examiner, both reputable men, disagreed concerning the number of hits on a felon’s body. In a class I once attended, a medical examiner spoke in glowing terms of a certain new generation hollow point. He showed an impressive slide in which a bad guy—”Satan Lives” was tattooed on his chest—took a single hit which produced a long and wide wound track.

Years later, the officer involved in the incident spoke at a seminar. He noted the man took the shot, stopped his attack, and remained mobile for some time, asking the officer to call an ambulance. The felon expired. The officer was certain the man could have continued the fight had he so wished. Two conflicting opinions on the same shooting.

.38 Special Colt Revolver above a black 9mm 1911 pistol
With +P loads and a good balance of expansion and penetration, the .38 Special and 9mm Luger are lifesavers. These handguns are the right size for good control.

Some adversaries are “machinegunned” in shootings—five .38s, seven .45s, or 41 9mms. Excited, frightened men empty their guns under deadly stress. If the felon goes down in such a volley, it may have been a one-shot stop. The volley that leaves a felon standing is always a failure to stop. Dismissing multiple hits eliminates the majority of smallbore shootings.

There are three components of wound potential that must be stressed- marksmanship, marksmanship, and marksmanship. We are not very bright if we have time to arm ourselves with a long gun and fail to do so. In comparison to a 12 gauge shotgun or a .223 rifle, the “weak .38” and “strong .45” are more alike than they differ. A sobering thought.

Tactical Info

Shooting histories should be used for tactical information first and bullet performance information second. As for lab work, gelatin is homogenous, and flesh and blood are heterogeneous. It is not the same, but gelatin is a good media for comparing bullet performance. What counts is point of impact and perhaps the adversary’s tox sheet. (Certain drugs are not called painkillers for nothing.) Even ordinary water is good for comparing bullet expansion and penetration.

SIG Sauer P229 .40 S&W pistol left profile
The author feels the SIG P229 .40 S&W is an ideal balance of power, control, and accuracy.

Whether or not we regard the studies as valid, one rule we may take away from learned research is that bullet selection is more important in the weaker calibers. One authority, Dr. Vincent J. Di Miao, has stated that perhaps half of all handgun bullets designed to expand actually fail to expand in the body. They strike a portion of the body that doesn’t stop the bullet, or they strike bone and close up on the nose. The works of this respected medical examiner do not inspire confidence in smallbore hollow points. We are led to the conclusion that all handguns are weak instruments.

Some decades ago, the Police Marksman’s Association published a study that I found among the more valid of the day. The calibers included were .38 Special, 9mm Luger, .357 Magnum, and .45 ACP. The .40 S&W was yet to come; so yes, this was some time ago. While the results of the study are valid, the study—conducted by a respected researcher and the records were available to interested researchers—also included hit probability. This simply reflected the number of hits per shots fired.

This was a reflection on training more than anything else but notably the .357 Magnum exhibited the highest hit probability. The .45 auto and .357 Magnum revolvers showed the highest hit probability of any service handguns. Hit probability is a side issue, but one which remains valid. You would imagine if the agency has a hit probability of 50% with the 9mm, the shots that hit are probably not well centered. Some agencies, such as the Kentucky State Patrol, engaged in rigorous training with their magnum revolvers.

.45 ACP 1911 Commander above, 357 Magnum revolver below
In powerful calibers, such as the .45 Auto and .357 Magnum, the handguns should be balanced for control and accuracy. A Commander-size .45 and a four-inch barrel revolver are ideal.

Fun With Math

One “study” shows a 9mm cartridge that has proven to be a 50 percent stopper. Hit probability in this agency has proven to be 50 percent—far higher than average at the time. What are the chances two felons will be stopped with two shots? Given that only one out of two rounds will hit Felon X and Felon Y, at least four shots will have to be fired to connect, and then only one opponent is likely to be stopped.

Here’s the math on that probability: .50 x .50 = .25. What you have is a one-in-four chance of stopping Felon X with one shot.

What about the .357 Magnum revolver, per PMA stats? It works out like this: .75 x .60 = .45. The conclusion, if we were peddling this “study” as a major work would be this: The .357 Magnum is nearly twice as likely to produce a one-shot stop as a 9mm Luger. So, there you have it. How much faith can we put in these studies? We can learn from the PMA study that firing less with more accuracy means a lot. That doesn’t mean we are slower to the first shot, but we should fire with greater accuracy.

The Answer

What stops human adversaries during a deadly attack? A brain shot or a spine shot are the only two instant stoppers. Damage to blood bearing organs which causes rapid blood loss and a drop of pressure causes the body to shut down. Common sense is the best guide. Bigger bullets cause more damage. Bigger knives cut better. Bigger engines pull better. However, handgun bullets aren’t very big. We should practice with the largest caliber we are able to control. Accuracy can make up for power. The reverse may not be true.

What’s your take on handgun stopping power? Have you tested your self-defense loads? How did you pick your prefered caliber for


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Filed Under: Op-ed Tagged With: .45, 9mm, ammunition choices, Concealed Carry, handguns, Home Defense, one shot stops, penetration, personal defense, wound potential

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. CaptainJames says

    October 11, 2019 at 7:48 pm

    There is no replacement for shot placement.

    Reply
  2. Yarbles says

    October 11, 2019 at 7:56 pm

    YEP.

    These are muddy waters to be sure.

    Carry and shoot the largest most powerful handgun you can conceal and control. +P+ rounds in 9mm such as the 9BPLE and the Speer 115gr GDHP LE bonded bullet have a lot of ‘Street Cred’ (Anecdotal Data from Police Officers) though they tend to perform poorly by FBI standards through barriers.

    I carry a .357 SIG G32. When I must carry a small deeply concealed weapon, I carry my customized G43 with Speer or Federal 9BPLE.

    Reply
  3. William Palmer says

    October 12, 2019 at 5:52 am

    Too much ado about nothing! Most of the armed world of CCW,does not and will not live trying to carry 2lbs of iron and four extra mags. Nor will they get into the useless argument about stopping power that the arm chair wannabes engage in. Having worked the real street with the DOD, and having seen everything from a.22lr to a small hand cannon do the job, the only thing that really matters is shot placement. If you put your.22lr roundn into the perps frontal lobe,it WILL, stop them. If you put it into their butt, it will not! Here vendetta the lesson.

    Reply
  4. Ken says

    October 12, 2019 at 6:32 pm

    My whole take on this caliber Vs that caliber is very simple. Early in my LE career I had the unfortunate pleasure of working as an officer in corrections in a very large state prison. The amount of men/prisoners walking around that had bullet pock marks upon their bodies was amazing . They were hit with handgun rounds and sometimes multiple hits. I saw prisoners that had been hit by Shotguns and rifle rounds too. These were usually horrible scars , but yet they were still alive. Sometimes the bad guys are just gonna absorb the bullets and refuse to die as statistics say they should. All things being equal 25 years later in my LE career I’ve learned some lessons especially as now since I’ve been an LE trainer for some time. I carry a high quality larger caliber handgun loaded with top quality defensive ammo and an extra magazine to. ( I’m not stating caliber and ammo so as not to further any debate). I dress around the gun not the other way around. I also train as much as I can every Single month. That being said I know that any threat I shoot may not go down easily and may even Take multiple hits and still survive , perhaps even long enough to kill me to. But the theory of never shoot a large caliber man with a small caliber bullet has merit, but In life and self defense there are no guarantees. Be safe all.

    Reply

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